The location is very similar to where Hurricane Helene formed last week, eventually becoming a category four hurricane. However, the NHC currently only gives the area a 40% chance to develop in the next seven days, and only a 10% chance to develop in the next 48 hours.
On Saturday, the area had a 50% chance of development in the next seven days, so even that number has decreased.
Here’s the information from the NWS:
A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions could become conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form in a few
days while the system is over the southern Gulf of Mexico or
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
